Those Who Experienced Uncertainty in Youth May Be Less Tolerant in Adulthood

Where and especially how we live has a fundamental influence on how we behave towards others and what social views we hold. That is probably not very surprising. Interesting and often surprising conclusions, however, emerge when we begin to look for connections between certain socio-economic parameters and specific moods in society. Does a higher degree of political and economic uncertainty during childhood and adolescence lead to a lower degree of tolerance in adulthood towards gay men and lesbians? This question is addressed by a new study in the prestigious journal Journal of Comparative Economics, in which Niclas Berggren from the Faculty of Business Administration at the University of Economics in Prague also participated.

Berggren, together with colleagues Andreas Bergh and Therese Nilsson, focused on data from 26 countries, including the Czech Republic. They looked for connections between data from the World Uncertainty Index from the years 1952–2020 and data on the degree of tolerance from the European Social Survey from the years 2004–2020.

“Most research so far has mainly dealt with the economic consequences of uncertainty in life, for example what effect uncertainty has on people’s future investment behaviour. We are mainly interested in social and cultural impacts. Tolerance towards gay men and lesbians is one of them,” explains Berggren.

The conclusion of the new study is clear: If a person grows up in a period of uncertainty, there is a higher chance that in adulthood they will be less tolerant towards homosexuals. It also turned out that the relationship is not limited only to attitudes towards gay men and lesbians. Also in questions concerning immigration, higher uncertainty experienced at the age of 6–12 and around 18–25 years is associated with lower tolerance in adulthood, although to a somewhat lesser extent.

We form the degree of tolerance towards others surprisingly early

From the authors’ perspective, other partial findings are also interesting. For example, it turned out that some periods are significantly more sensitive for the formation of tolerance. One of them is, for some perhaps surprisingly, a very early age between 6–12 years.

“Precisely at this age – when children intensively perceive the world around them, adopt norms from parents, school and peers – uncertainty is reflected in later intolerance the most,” emphasises Berggren, adding that for children who grew up in countries with a high degree of uncertainty during this period, the probability in adulthood that they would strongly agree that gay men and lesbians should “live as they want” was lower by several percentage points.

The second window with a high degree of influence on future attitudes towards gay men and lesbians, according to the trio of researchers, occurs between 18–25 years, that is in the period of late adolescence and early adulthood. “It is a time when people build their own identity, autonomy and political attitudes. Uncertainty at this age also leaves a noticeable mark, although somewhat weaker than in childhood,” explains Berggren. At a later age, exposure to uncertainty almost never manifested itself in the later degree of tolerance.

Uncertainty leads to a desire for a predictable world

Why does uncertainty have such a strong cultural impact? Together with colleagues, Berggren relies in the study on the theory of so-called uncertainty-identity. “According to this theory, the brain perceives uncertainty as a threat and one of the ways it defends itself against it is found precisely in limiting tolerance towards otherness and in the desire for a more predictable world,” claims Berggren.

Such a mechanism would, according to them, explain why generations growing up in turbulent times later tend to be less open to differences. After all, it would not be the first study to describe such a relationship. Earlier works by Berggren, who has long been concerned with the connections between the state of the economy and social thinking, have already pointed out how large-scale economic and institutional changes are associated with shifts in tolerance and related moods and opinions in society. An example is, for instance, the positive effect of the development of globalisation on the level of trust in society.

Functioning democratic institutions as a shield against uncertainty

The authors of the study point out one more important connection: The extent to which a period of uncertainty is reflected in people’s tolerance significantly depends on the quality of democratic institutions in the state, such as an independent judiciary, freedom of the media or the fairness of elections. In other words, in countries with a strong democratic system, uncertainty is reflected in lower tolerance among the population much less or not at all.

On the contrary, in countries with a weaker democratic tradition, uncertainty acts as a strong formative imprint that gives rise to less tolerant attitudes in adulthood. This applies, among other things, also to post-communist countries of Central and Eastern Europe, including the Czech Republic.

According to the researchers, high-quality democratic institutions increase tolerance in two ways. Firstly, they strengthen the feeling that the world has rules and fair mechanisms, and secondly, they accustom people to open discussion, the exchange of views and respect for different voices.

The paradox of short-term and long-term uncertainty

The study also offers a surprising view of how formative uncertainty differs from the current one. While longer-term uncertainty in childhood can reduce the baseline level of tolerance practically permanently, a short-term wave of uncertainty in adult life, such as the recent covid crisis, can unite people in a sense of solidarity and increase the level of tolerance. However, only temporarily.

If the above conclusions hold, according to the authors this implies several messages for European nations: The first is that we should not take lightly the effects of recent crises on the future life of today’s young generation. “The pandemic, the war in Europe or the rise of extreme political currents and the erosion of democratic institutions in some countries – all of this creates uncertainty and the resulting effects on people’s thinking,” reminds Berggren. For the preservation of highly tolerant and stable societies, it is therefore, according to the authors, necessary to pay attention to strengthening democracy and to take steps to ensure that children are exposed to crises and uncertainty as little as possible.