Healthcare and teaching professions are the backbone of society. And yet they are collapsing, warns a scientific study.

Population ageing is not just a social phenomenon. It will also fundamentally transform who will take care of us in the future. What will the Czech labor market look like in 2030? A recent study from the University of Economics and Business in Prague provides the answer. The research team – Ph.D. Michaela Jirková, Assoc. Prof. Petr Mazouch, and Prof. Jakub Fischer – examined the future of five non-market professions: general nurses, doctors, teachers, and public administration employees. And the result? A critical shortage of workers that may seriously endanger the availability of essential public services.

Ageing has a dual effect – it increases demand for certain services while reducing the number of people able to provide them. In other words, we need more care, but at the same time, we have fewer people who can deliver it.

A crisis in white coats: Who will save Czech healthcare?

General nurses, midwives, paramedics, radiology assistants, and other healthcare workers – all of them are already in short supply on the labor market. In the Czech Republic, for example, there are about 80,000 general nurses, making them a key group for the functioning of healthcare. And yet, in 2023, the average age of a general nurse was 48.2 years, while pediatric nurses averaged 53.1 years.

As many as 18% of all general nurse positions and 27% of pediatric nurse positions are held by people over 60 years of age. This means we are facing a significant wave of retirements within just a few years.

The study shows that by 2030 the Czech Republic will lack more than 5,000 general nurses. The solution? Increase the number of graduates in the field from the current 1,600 to 3,450 per year. But that requires admitting up to 5,200 students annually – double today’s intake.

It’s not just nurses – other healthcare professions are at risk too

Paramedics will be the first to be missing – and in critical situations: accidents, cardiac arrests, or natural disasters. Their readiness and professionalism often determine survival. Paradoxically, they are currently the scarcest group in the system. After the termination of paramedic programs at higher vocational schools in 2019, a five-year educational gap arose. This shortfall currently accounts for about 700 missing graduates.

Radiology under pressure: We have the machines, but who will operate them?

Healthcare increasingly relies on modern diagnostics – CT scans, MRI, and X-ray examinations have become standard procedures. But radiology assistants, who operate this equipment, are in very short supply on the labor market. According to predictions, up to 21% of capacity in this profession may be at risk within 10 years.

Clinics without doctors: Ageing threatens basic care

The number of doctors of retirement age is increasing. Outpatient care is the most endangered, with more than 40% of doctors over 60. The greatest problems are in emergency services and pediatrics. A particularly critical situation exists in child and adolescent psychiatry. Although the number of medical students was significantly increased years ago – which will lead to a rise in graduates from 2025 onwards – it still may not be enough.

Roughly 1,400 students graduate from medical schools each year. While this growing number of graduates will cover doctors retiring, it will not cover the expected rise in demand for healthcare due to population ageing. We need not only more graduates but also better distribution across regions where they are most needed.

Czech education is also ageing and struggling with a lack of qualified teachers

A similar situation exists in Czech education – a quarter of teachers are older than 55. The average age of a teacher in 2023 was 46 years – in kindergartens 45, in primary schools 46, in secondary schools 48, in higher vocational schools 47.7, and in art schools 45.9.

The main issue is a shortage of qualified teachers. There is a marked lack of specialists in physics, information and communication technologies, and foreign languages, especially English. In lower secondary schools, the situation is most critical in physics, where only 70% of lessons are taught by a qualified teacher.

Municipalities and town halls face a wave of retirements – but young people aren’t attracted to public administration

The state administration is also grappling with ageing. In 2020, the average age of employees in public institutions was 46.5 years. At first glance, this may not seem dramatic, but the age structure shows a serious problem: people under 30 make up only 8% of staff. Public administration does not appeal to young people. As a result, one-third of employees in small municipal offices are over 55. In the smallest municipalities, the situation is the most severe – almost half of employees will need to be replaced within the next 15 years.

What’s next for non-market professions?

Making teaching and healthcare professions more attractive is not just a matter of salaries but also of overall working conditions and work–life balance. Simply knowing that we will need more healthcare workers and teachers is not enough. We need a concrete plan to recruit and retain them.

Such a plan cannot just be a set of numbers and tables. It must be developed in cooperation with schools, universities, employers, the state, and practitioners. We need to build a system that not only attracts young people to study pedagogy or healthcare but also convinces them that their work will have long-term meaning, stability, and fair remuneration.

Key steps to solutions include:

• modernization of education – using new technologies, greater involvement of practical training during studies, and development of lifelong learning,

• targeted support for regions with the greatest shortage of professionals,

• flexible forms of work that allow for a balance between professional and family life.

The future of Czech education, healthcare, and the entire public administration will depend on whether we can implement these changes in time – and show the younger generation that they can find their place and a meaningful career here.